It does become something of a tossup because the evidence is so scanty and ambiguous. I have at least two more articles coming out on the Christ myth theory, and the second one goes into the basic question of what nonexperts should believe about Jesus's historicity.

I recommend apathetic agnosticism. We can never know whether Jesus was historical, given the current state of the evidence. But it also doesn't matter whether he was historical or not, for atheistic or naturalistic purposes, because as you say, there are strong secular explanations either way.