An accidental escape from crucifixion is certainly more likely than a supernatural resurrection, as per David Hume's point against the evidence for miracles. But the Passover Plot scenario has a lot of moving parts, which makes it less probable than the simpler naturalistic explanation, which is that an early Christian (such as Peter) had a "vision" of a resurrected Jesus (a post-bereavement hallucination), which inspired him to keep Jesus's spirit alive. That story of a vision was then passed around until it was written up in the distorted, concretized, allegorized gospel of Mark. This is Paulogia's minimal witnesses explanation of how Christianity began.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Isnl9A50ySY&ab_channel=Paulogia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nhy_viHhv7Y&t=660s&ab_channel=Paulogia